A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
